In a recent study published in Global Change Biology, researchers examined the environmental consequences of global food oil demand and its potential impact on forests and carbon-rich ecosystems. Using a newly developed land allocation algorithm, the study estimated the deforestation and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions associated with feeding 9.2 billion people by 2050 with sufficient food oils. The study focused on four key oil crops: palm oil, and three unsaturated oils (soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed), which are considered healthier alternatives according to the EAT-Lancet Commission’s dietary recommendations.
The findings are concerning. Under current global food oil demand trends, deforestation could reach 115-120 million hectares by 2050. However, this number could increase to 148 million hectares if the EAT-Lancet dietary guidelines—promoting a reduction in palm oil consumption while increasing intake of other unsaturated oils—are adopted. In the worst-case scenario, where palm oil is entirely replaced, deforestation could jump to 385 million hectares, pushing up CO2 emissions from land-use change to an unsustainable level of 1525 Mt.
Background
The growing global population—projected to reach 9.2 billion by 2050—has already put tremendous pressure on the earth’s land and resources. As of today, 37% of the planet’s land surface is used for agriculture, and food production remains the leading driver of deforestation, biodiversity loss, and greenhouse gas emissions. Despite these vast areas devoted to agriculture, hunger and undernutrition still persist, particularly in less developed countries.
The EAT-Lancet Commission has proposed a global benchmark diet aimed at achieving both health and sustainability. The diet recommends keeping current per capita palm oil consumption stable while increasing the use of unsaturated oils, such as soybean, sunflower, and rapeseed, by 67%. However, the proposed shift raises important concerns regarding land-use change and the need for large-scale agricultural expansion to meet these demands.
While palm oil production is linked to significant deforestation—especially in Southeast Asia—its alternatives, such as soybean and sunflower oil, have their own land-use and environmental impacts. In this context, the study’s findings serve as a critical reminder of the need for sustainable agricultural practices and smarter land-use decisions to prevent further environmental damage.
About the Study
The study aimed to evaluate how future food oil demand—under both current trends and the EAT-Lancet dietary scenario—would affect land use, deforestation, and CO2 emissions by 2050. Researchers used a novel land allocation algorithm to estimate these impacts. The algorithm considered four main factors:
Inclusion: Identifying areas that could potentially be used for oilseed crop production.
Exclusion: Excluding areas that are unsuitable for oilseed cultivation.
Attribution: Allocating oilseed crops to areas deemed suitable.
Priority: Ranking areas based on oilseed crop yield potential.
The study used data from the United Nations’ FAO’s FAOSTAT database, which tracks current global trends in food oil consumption. It also utilized population projections from the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP2) model, anticipating a global population of 9.2 billion by 2050.
Study Findings
The study’s findings are alarming, highlighting the environmental risks associated with meeting future food oil demands. According to the land allocation models, the global need for food oil could rise by 68% by 2050 compared to today’s levels. The EAT-Lancet scenario, however, would increase this demand by 74%, necessitating 317 million hectares of agricultural land to meet the dietary guidelines.
Substituting palm oil entirely with other unsaturated oils, as recommended by the EAT-Lancet Commission, exacerbates the issue. The substitution model predicts a total land use of 385 million hectares, an increase of 148 million hectares of deforestation, and corresponding CO2 emissions of approximately 1525 Mt. Southeast Asia, particularly Indonesia and Malaysia, would experience the most significant deforestation impacts, with substantial effects also expected in Central Africa and Central America.
However, the study offers a potential solution: sustainable palm oil production. The researchers suggest that prioritizing the expansion of oil palm cultivation near existing plantations could mitigate some of the deforestation and carbon emissions, reducing the overall impact by 39-42%.
Conclusions
The study underscores the complex relationship between food oil demand and environmental degradation. While replacing palm oil with other unsaturated oils may seem like a healthier option, it could lead to even greater land-use changes and environmental harm. The findings suggest that certification schemes for sustainable palm oil production and other initiatives to reduce food waste could be key to meeting global food oil needs without causing extensive deforestation.
As global food oil demand continues to rise, policymakers, businesses, and consumers must weigh the environmental costs of different oil crops. Strategies that include more sustainable farming practices, land-use optimization, and stronger certification frameworks will be essential to avoid further degradation of the world’s forests and carbon-rich ecosystems.
This study highlights the urgent need for global cooperation to balance food security, health, and environmental protection. As the demand for food oils continues to increase, it will be crucial to prioritize solutions that limit deforestation and reduce carbon emissions to protect the future of the planet.
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