A new study from the Food is Medicine Institute at Tufts University suggests that implementing medically tailored meals—designed by registered dietitians to meet the specific nutritional needs of individuals with complex health conditions—could result in significant savings and health improvements nationwide.
Medically tailored meals have already shown promise in pilot programs aimed at improving health outcomes for patients with diet-sensitive conditions, such as diabetes, heart disease, and cancer. These nutrition-based food prescription programs have not only improved the health of participants but have also demonstrated potential to reduce medical costs. The new study, published on April 7 in Health Affairs, aims to quantify the broader impact of these programs on a national scale.
Researchers developed a simulation model to predict the effects of nationwide implementation of medically tailored meals across all 50 states. The analysis estimated that such a program could save approximately $32.1 billion in health care costs in the first year alone and prevent over 3.5 million hospitalizations annually due to complications from diet-sensitive conditions.
The findings revealed that medically tailored meals, if fully adopted by eligible individuals, would be cost-saving in 49 of 50 states, underscoring their potential to reduce both financial and health burdens. “These results highlight the opportunity for policymakers to integrate medically tailored meals into health care coverage on a larger scale,” said Shuyue (Amy) Deng, the study’s first author and a doctoral student at Tufts’ Friedman School.
The simulation, which ran 1,000 iterations to account for uncertainties, showed net health and cost benefits across all states, with variations depending on local health care costs, infrastructure, policies, and rates of diet-sensitive conditions. Connecticut led the nation in terms of savings, with an annual per-patient savings of $6,299, followed by Pennsylvania at $4,450 and Massachusetts at $4,331. Alabama was the only state where the program would be cost-neutral but still produce health benefits.
The study estimated that more than 14 million Americans nationwide could qualify for medically tailored meals. The number of eligible individuals varied widely by state, from 1,221,000 in California to just 18,000 in Alaska. These individuals, who suffer from conditions such as diabetes, cardiovascular disease, or cancer, also face limitations in daily activities, such as preparing meals or shopping for groceries. On average, the annual healthcare expenditure for this group is around $30,900 per person, with each individual experiencing an average of 0.53 hospitalizations annually.
The researchers also assessed how many patients would need to receive medically tailored meals to prevent a single hospitalization. Maryland required the fewest patients (2.3), while Colorado required the most (6.9). These differences are influenced by factors such as state population health and hospital payment systems. Nationally, the program was estimated to prevent over 3.5 million hospitalizations annually.
“Medically tailored meals are not just good medicine—they’re good economics,” said Dariush Mozaffarian, senior author and director of the Food is Medicine Institute. “States serve as excellent testing grounds for health care innovations, and investing in these programs could transform care for vulnerable patients while creating substantial health care value.”
The simulation also revealed that nearly 90% of the individuals who would qualify for medically tailored meals are covered by Medicare and Medicaid, with the remainder covered by private insurance. As of January 2025, 16 states have approved or proposed Medicaid section 1115 waivers, allowing them to test Food is Medicine initiatives, including pilot programs for medically tailored meals.
While the potential benefits are clear, challenges remain in scaling these programs, including the need for provider training, the integration of screening and referral tools into electronic health records, and ensuring the meals are both nutritionally effective and palatable.
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