The Doomsday Clock, a symbolic representation of how close humanity is to self-destruction, has been used since 1947 by the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists (BAS) to communicate the risks of global catastrophe. Traditionally, the clock has emphasized the threat of nuclear weapons, but in recent decades, it has expanded to include other existential dangers such as climate change, disruptive technologies, cyber risks, and political instability. Despite its prominence, no study has previously explored the potential connection between the Doomsday Clock and human health outcomes. A recent study by researchers at Mass General Brigham aims to fill this gap by investigating how the Doomsday Clock correlates with mortality and mental health, opening the door for further conversations on how social determinants of health (SDOH) might influence global events.
The Study’s Background
The study, which uses data from the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) 2023 Global Burden of Disease project, is published in The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Researchers, led by Dr. Samuel Justin Sinclair, Director of the Psychological Assessment and Research Service (PARSe) at Brigham and Women’s Hospital (BWH), investigated the relationship between the Doomsday Clock and public health, particularly mortality and mental health trends.
“This study represents a first step, with the inherent limitations thereof, but it suggests a bridge between the fate of the world, our psychology, and our health,” said Dr. Sinclair. “This may sound intuitive, but it’s something that no one has looked at before. We hope it opens the door to further discussion.”
Key Findings
Association with Mortality from Mental Health Issues and Other Causes
The study’s results suggest that as the Doomsday Clock moves closer to midnight, indicating an increased risk to humanity, there is a corresponding rise in mortality from certain causes. Specifically, the researchers observed higher mortality rates from:
Alzheimer’s disease
Suicide
Unintentional injuries
Alcohol and substance-related disorders
Unexpected Findings on Other Health Conditions
Surprisingly, the study also found lower mortality rates for certain conditions as the clock neared midnight. These included:
Malignant neoplasms (cancers)
HIV
Diabetes mellitus
The researchers suggest that these findings might point to broader shifts in societal conditions that impact public health during periods of heightened global risk. In times of greater societal instability, the associated stressors and concerns could contribute to an increase in mortality from mental health disorders and substance abuse, while leading to a decrease in mortality from other health conditions, possibly due to changes in public health responses or social behaviors.
Socio-political Indicators and Social Determinants of Health
The authors also propose that socio-political indicators, such as the Doomsday Clock, might be valuable tools for capturing aspects of social determinants of health on a macro level. Social determinants of health—such as economic stability, education, healthcare access, and social and community contexts—can play a significant role in determining individual and community health outcomes. The study suggests that larger global events and existential risks reflected in the Doomsday Clock might influence these broader determinants, leading to significant shifts in public health.
According to Dr. Sinclair, “This study represents a new approach to understanding how socio-political factors influence public health, offering insights into the interconnectedness of global risk, psychology, and mortality.”
Next Steps for Research
While this study is an initial attempt to understand the relationship between the Doomsday Clock and health outcomes, it paves the way for future research on how existential threats impact public well-being. By linking global events to psychological responses and health trends, researchers hope to develop more comprehensive models that consider both micro-level (individual) and macro-level (societal) factors in shaping human health.
The study underscores the importance of examining the broader implications of global risk on mental health, mortality, and overall societal well-being. Moving forward, the researchers hope to see more studies that explore how other indicators of global risk and societal stressors may affect both individual health and global public health trends.
This research offers a unique perspective on how we might consider the social, political, and environmental factors that contribute to health and mortality, urging further exploration into the far-reaching effects of global risk factors on individual and collective well-being.
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